La semilla de Vox, ¿Quién votó a la derecha radical populista en Castilla y León?
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.48225/SOCYL202202Palabras clave:
Vox, derecha radical, Castilla y León, elecciones y España.Resumen
En este trabajo se presentan los resultados de un estudio de caso basado en evidencia empírica sobre factores de demanda política que permiten analizar el éxito político-electoral de Vox en Castilla y León. Elaboramos un análisis de regresión logística multinivel utilizando datos procedentes de la encuesta preelectoral del CIS sobre los comicios autonómicos de 2022 en la región. Los resultados muestran que las características del electorado de Vox en Castilla y León, no se ajustan en plenitud a las propias de Vox en el escenario español, ni tampoco a las de la Derecha Radical Populista europea. Finalmente, descubrimos que el momento de apogeo político y electoral de Vox se explica porque la formación se nutre de un electorado muy transversal y volátil. Vox ha sido capaz de atraer a votantes con dos especificidades. Primero, y a diferencia de sus semejantes europeos, ha conseguido movilizar a la élite económica de la región. Segundo, ha captado a electores críticos con la situación actual de Castilla y León y desafectos con la gestión del Gobierno de la Junta.
Referencias
Alonso, S., & Rovira Kaltwasser, C. (2015). Spain: No Country for the Populist Radical Right? South European Society and Politics, 20(1), 21-45. https://doi.org/10.1080/13608746.2014.985448
Arzheimer, K. (2009). Contextual Factors and the Extreme Right Vote in Western Europe, 1980-2002. American Journal of Political Science, 53(2), 259-275. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1540-5907.2009.00369.x
Arzheimer, K. (2017). Electoral sociology-Who voters for the Extreme Right and why—And when? En C. Mudde (Ed.), The Populist Radical Right. A Reader. (pp. 376-392). Routledge.
Casals, X. (2000). La ultraderecha española: Una presencia ausente (1975-1999). Historia y Política: Ideas, Procesos y Movimientos Sociales, 3, 147-174.
Coffé, H., Heyndels, B., & Vermeir, J. (2007). Fertile grounds for extreme right wing parties: Explaining the Vlaams Blok’s electoral success. Electoral Studies, 26(1), 142-155. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.electstud.2006.01.005
Cox, D. R., & Snell, E. J. (1989). The analysis of binary data (2nd ed.). Chapman and Hall.
Cramer, K. J. (2016). The Politics of Resentment: Rural Consciousness in Wisconsin and the Rise of Scott Walker. University of Chicago Press. https://doi.org/10.7208/chicago/9780226349251.001.0001
De Lange, S., & Rooduijn, M. (2015). Contemporary Populism, the Agrarian and the Rural in Central Eastern and Western Europe. En D. Strijker, G. Voerman, & I. Terluin (Eds.), Rural protest groups and populist political parties (pp. 163-190). Wageningen Academic Publishers. https://doi.org/10.3920/978-90-8686-807-0
Del Molino, S. (2016). La España vacía; Viaje por un país que nunca fue. Turner Noema.
Dijkstra, L., Poelman, H., & Rodríguez-Pose, A. (2020). The geography of EU discontent. Regional Studies, 54(6), 737-753. https://doi.org/10.1080/00343404.2019.1654603
Engler, S., & Weisstanner, D. (2021). The threat of social decline: Income inequality and radical right support. Journal of European Public Policy, 28(2), 153-173. https://doi.org/10.1080/13501763.2020.1733636
Ferrari, D. (2021). Perceptions, Resentment, Economic Distress, and Support for Right-Wing Populist Parties in Europe. Politics and Governance, 9(3), 14. https://doi.org/10.17645/pag.v9i3.3961
Ferreira, C. (2019). Vox como representante de la derecha radical en España: Un estudio sobre su ideología. Revista Española de Ciencia Política, 51, 73-98. https://doi.org/10.21308/recp.51.03
González-Leonardo, M., & López-Gray, A. (2019). Emigración y fuga de talento en Castilla y León. Boletín de la Asociación de Geógrafos Españoles, 80. https://doi.org/10.21138/bage.2612
Gordon, I. R. (2018). In what sense left behind by globalisation? Looking for a less reductionist geography of the populist surge in Europe. Cambridge Journal of Regions, Economy and Society, 11(1), 95-113. https://doi.org/10.1093/cjres/rsx028
Han, K. J. (2016). Income inequality and voting for radical right-wing parties. Electoral Studies, 42, 54-64. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.electstud.2016.02.001
Harteveld, E., Van Der Brug, W., Dahlberg, S., & Kokkonen, A. (2015). The gender gap in populist radical-right voting: Examining the demand side in Western and Eastern Europe. Patterns of Prejudice, 49 (1-2), 103-134. https://doi.org/10.1080/0031322X.2015.1024399
Harteveld, E., Van Der Brug, W., De Lange, S., & Van Der Meer, T. (2022). Multiple roots of the populist radical right: Support for the Dutch PVV in cities and the countryside. European Journal of Political Research, 61(2), 440-461. https://doi.org/10.1111/1475-6765.12452
Hernández-Carr, A. (2011). ¿La hora del populismo? Elementos para comprender el «éxito» electoral de Plataforma per Catalunya. Revista de Estudios Políticos, 153, 47-74.
Hosmer, D. W., & Lemeshow. (2000). Applied Logistic Regression (2nd ed.). John Wiley & Sons.
Iglesias-Pascual, R., Paloma, V., & Benítez, I. (2021). The role of contextual factors in the electoral resurgence of extreme right-wing forces in Spain: The case of Andalusia. Political Geography, 86, 1-9. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.polgeo.2021.102356
Immerzeel, T., & Pickup, M. (2015). Populist radical right parties mobilizing ‘the people’? The role of populist radical right success in voter turnout. Electoral Studies, 40, 347-360. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.electstud.2015.10.007
Inglehart, R. (1977). The Silent Revolution: Changing Values and Political Styles Among Western Publics. Princeton University Press.
Marcos-Marne, H., Plaza-Colodro, C., & O’Flynn, C. (2021). Populism and new radical-right parties: The case of VOX. Politics, 026339572110195. https://doi.org/10.1177/02633957211019587
Mayer, S. J., & Nguyen, C. G. (2021). Angry Reactionary Narcissists? Anger Activates the Link Between Narcissism and Right-Populist Party Support. Politics and Governance, 9(3), 248-259. https://doi.org/10.17645/pag.v9i3.4000
McFadden, D. (1974). Conditional logit analysis of qualitative choice behavior. En P. Zarembka (Ed.), Frontiers in Econometrics (pp. 105-142). Academic Press.
Menard, S. (2000). Coefficients of Determination for Multiple Logistic Regression Analysis. The American Statistician, 54(1), 17-24. JSTOR. https://doi.org/10.2307/2685605
Mitsch, F., Lee, N., & Ralph Morrow, E. (2021). Faith no more? The divergence of political trust between urban and rural Europe. Political Geography, 89, 102426. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.polgeo.2021.102426
Mudde, C. (2007). Populist Radical Right Parties in Europe. Cambridge University Press.
Nagelkerke, N. J. D. (1991). A note on a general definition of the coefficient of determination. Biometrika, 78(3), 691-692. https://doi.org/10.1093/biomet/78.3.691
Ortiz Barquero, P. (2019). The Electoral Breakthrough of the Radical Right in Spain: Correlates of Electoral Support for VOX in Andalusia (2018). Genealogy, 3(4), 72. https://doi.org/10.3390/genealogy3040072
Pardos-Prado, S., & Molins, J. M. (2009). The emergence of right-wing radicalism at the local level in Spain: The Catalan case. International Journal of Iberian Studies, 22(3), 201-218. https://doi.org/10.1386/ijis.22.3.201/1
Rama, J., Zanoti, L., Turnbull-Dugarte, S. J., & Santana, A. (2021). Vox: The Rise of the Spanish Populist Radical Right. Routledge.
Rodríguez, L. M. R. (2007). Los espacios ideológicos del PP y del PSOE en Castilla y León (Ideological Spaces: PP and PSOE in Castilla y León). Reis, 120, 155. https://doi.org/10.2307/40184837
Rooduijn, M., Van Kessel, S., Froio, C., Pirro, A., De Lange, S., Halikiopoulou, D., Lewis, P., Mudde, C.,& Taggart, P. (2019). The PopuList: An Overview of Populist, Far Right, Far Left and Eurosceptic Parties in Europe. www.popu-list.org
Sipma, T., & Berning, C. C. (2021). Economic conditions and populist radical right voting: The role of issue salience. Electoral Studies, 74, 102416. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.electstud.2021.102416
Stockemer, D. (2017). The Economic Crisis (2009–2013) and Electoral Support for the Radical Right in Western Europe—Some New and Unexpected Findings. Social Science Quarterly, 98(5), 1536-1553. https://doi.org/10.1111/ssqu.12374
Stockemer, D., Lentz, T., & Mayer, D. (2018). Individual Predictors of the Radical Right-Wing Vote in Europe: A Meta-Analysis of Articles in Peer-Reviewed Journals (1995–2016). Government and Opposition, 53(3), 569-593. Cambridge Core. https://doi.org/10.1017/gov.2018.2
Taguieff, P. A. (2007). Interpretar la ola populista en la Europa contemporánea: Entre resurgencia y emergencia. En M. Á. Simón (Ed.), La extrema derecha en Europa desde 1945 a nuestros días. Tecnos.
Turnbull-Dugarte, S. J. (2019). Explaining the end of Spanish exceptionalism and electoral support for Vox. Research & Politics, 6(2), 205316801985168. https://doi.org/10.1177/2053168019851680
Turnbull-Dugarte, S. J., Rama, J., & Santana, A. (2020). The Baskerville’s dog suddenly started barking: Voting for VOX in the 2019 Spanish general elections. Political Research Exchange, 2(1), 1781543. https://doi.org/10.1080/2474736X.2020.1781543
Van Hauwaert, S. M., & Van Kessel, S. (2018). Beyond protest and discontent: A cross-national analysis of the effect of populist attitudes and issue positions on populist party support. European Journal of Political Research, 57(1), 68-92. https://doi.org/10.1111/1475-6765.12216
Werts, H., Scheepers, P., & Lubbers, M. (2013). Euro-scepticism and radical right-wing voting in Europe, 2002–2008: Social cleavages, socio-political attitudes and contextual characteristics determining voting for the radical right. European Union Politics, 14(2), 183-205. https://doi.org/10.1177/1465116512469287
Zagórski, P., Rama, J., & Cordero, G. (2021). Young and Temporary: Youth Employment Insecurity and Support for Right-Wing Populist Parties in Europe. Government and Opposition, 56(3), 405-426. https://doi.org/10.1017/gov.2019.28
Descargas
Publicado
Número
Sección
Licencia
Derechos de autor 2024 Imanol Negral, Álvaro Sánchez García (Autor/a)

Esta obra está bajo una licencia internacional Creative Commons Atribución-NoComercial 4.0.